Expert picks and betting tips for the 2022 Open Championship

The PGA Tour heads to the Old Course at St Andrews in Scotland for the 2022 Open Championship this Thursday. Three-time winner Tiger Woods will return to the major scene after skipping the US Open last month. The field will also include 15 other former champions, including Phil Mickelson, Collin Morikawa and Jordan Spieth. Woods enters the Open Championship with 65-1 odds to win another Claret Jug, while Rory McIlroy is the betting favorite at 9-1. Other contenders include Scottish Open champion Xander Schauffele and Masters winner Scottie Scheffler.

Where is the betting value? Will the favorites prevail? Our golf and betting experts break down the field for the last major of the year.

Jump to a section:
Experts’ picks to win | Betting value picks to win | Notable golfers odds | Props and more


Expert picks

Matt Barrie, ESPN
Winners:
Rory McIlroy

Michael Eaves, ESPN
Winners:
Rory McIlroy

Charlotte Gibson, ESPN.com
Winners: Rory McIlroy

Andy North, ESPN
Winners: Jon Rahm

Mark Schlabach, ESPN.com
Winners:
Jordan Spieth

Marty Smith, ESPN
Winners:
Will Zalatoris

Curtis Strange, ESPN
Winners:
CameronSmith

Wright Thompson, ESPN.com
Winners:
Tiger Woods

Paolo Uggetti, ESPN.com
Winners:
Will Zalatoris

Tom VanHaaren, ESPN.com
Winners:
Will Zalatoris

Scott Van Pelt, ESPN
Winners:
Jordan Spieth

Kevin Van Valkenburg, ESPN.com
Winners:
Max Homa

Josh Weinfuss, ESPN.com
Winners:
Rory McIlroy


Betting value picks to win

Our betting experts give you picks to win based on value. We look at the betting board and tell you who has the best chance to cash your ticket.

Michael Collins, ESPN senior golf analyst
Winners: Tommy Fleetwood (28-1)

Why he’ll win: It’s strange to think Fleetwood is coming into the week under the radar. He finished T-4 at the Scottish Open, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s in contention this weekend.

David Bearman, sports betting deputy editor, ESPN.com
Winners: Xander Shovel (16-1)

Why he’ll win: At 16-1, Schauffele has tremendous value, with back-to-back wins and three wins in his past seven events. He’s top-10 in approach, tee-to-green and overall, yet is still +500 longer than McIlroy. He has nine top 10s at majors and is just missing a win. No need to overthink this one.

Chris Fallica, ESPN betting analyst
Winners:
Jordan Spieth (16-1)

Why he’ll win: Spieth appeared to be prepping for The Open last week in Scotland. While he would have liked to have won, he spent the weekend focusing on parts of the game which will come in handy at St Andrews. He’s got a win and a runner-up here since his T-4 finish in 2015 and his game appears to be in a good spot entering Thursday.

Tyler Fulghum, ESPN betting analyst
Winners: Tony Finau (40-1)

Why he’ll win: There are a few top-flight players waiting to break through for their first major championship whom I like this weekend, but Finau provides the best price. His track record at The Open and left-style courses speaks for itself: top-15 in each of his past three Open Championships. He’s also in good form entering St Andrews with top-13 finishes in three of his past four starts.

Joe Fortenbaugh, ESPN betting analyst
Winners: Max Homa (50-1)

Why he’ll win: I’m getting 50-1 odds on a healthy golfer who has already notched two victories on tour this season, the most recent at the Wells Fargo in May. Homa has been incredibly consistent this season, finishing in the top 20 in 10 of his past 15 stroke play events while making the cut in all three major championships this season. Throw in the fact that he finished 40th last year in his first-ever start at the Open Championship and I’m happy to get involved at 50-1.

Anita Marks, ESPN betting analyst
Winners: Patrick Cantley (20-1)
Cantlay is flying low on the radar, but has been playing phenomenal golf as of late. He has missed the cut only once in his past six starts and but has finished 14th or better with three top-5s. He ranks in the top 10 in par-4 scoring and should dominate in putting this week.

Doug Kezirian ESPN betting analyst
Winners: Dustin Johnson (30-1)

Why he’ll win: His game isn’t in perfect form right now, but 30-1 for a player of his caliber is just too good to pass up. The guy finished T-14 at St. Andrews in 2010 and has four top-10 finishes at this major, including last year.


Odds of winning the 2022 Open Championship


Props and more

Our betting experts have more than just bets to win. Here are some props to target for the entire event, from top-10s to made cuts to tournament matchups.

Xander Schauffele top-20 finish (-125)
Bearman/Fallica: This prop has cashed at seven consecutive events this season and in 14 of Schauffele’s 21 career majors. His top-20 price has come down from +200, but he is still a steal at -125.

Tiger Woods to make the cut (-145)
Bearman: No one is asking Tiger to win this thing and 60-1 is nowhere near true value, but he has planned his entire year around this event, even missing the US Open for it. It’s his favorite course and he hoisted the Claret Jug in 2000 and 2005. Walking the course will be significantly easier on his rehabbed leg compared to Augusta and Brookline. He just needs to make it to Saturday.

Sahith Theegala top-10 finish (+1200)
Collin: Ignorance normally isn’t bliss, but Theegala will be the exception to that rule in his first ever start at The Open in St Andrews.

Max Homa top 10 finish (+350)
Fallica: Homa put together a solid first three rounds last week before falling back Sunday. He has been out of the top 25 once since the Masters, is 13th on tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green and should improve here after getting a taste of The Open last year (T-40th).

Shane Lowry top 20 finish (+130)
Marks: Lowry has been playing terrific golf this season, outside of his putter. He will be back in his element on a links course where his game is top notch and scrambling will keep him in the top 20 if not higher.

Jordan Smith top-40 finish (+150)
Marks: I picked Smith last week to finish in the top 20 and he didn’t disappoint. He has six straight top-25s on the DP World Tour and I expect him to pick up where he left off last week against a much more difficult field.

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